2017 Atlantic hurricane season/Layten's prediction
Storms Tropical Storm Arlene Tropical Storm Arlene developed from an extratropical cyclone in the central Atlantic on May 22. The system was first noted as having a low chance of development on May 19, before a subtropical depression formed on the 22nd bear the Bahamas. The following day, the system became a subtropical storm and was named Arlene at this time, before becoming fully tropical the following day as it turned out towards Bermuda, weaakening to a tropical depression the following morning. Later the same day, Arlene transitioned into an extratropical cyclone, and it dissipated the following day near Nova Scotia, triggering minor flooding in that location. Hurricane Bret The origins of Hurricane Bret can be traced back to a tropical wave that emerged from Africa on June 2. The wave moved across the Atlantic, before it finally became Tropical Depression Two on June 12 near Cuba. Moving northwest, the system intensified into a tropical storm the following day, and was named Bret as a result. For the next several days, Bret meandered across the gulf, and became a minimal hurricane on June 16 as it neared the Texas coast. As Bret made landfall the following day, a recon aircraft recorded peak winds of 90 mph, and a minimal atmospheric pressure of 972 mbar, making it the strongest June storm since Alex in 2010. Once moving inland, Bret rapidly weakened, and lost its tropical characteristics the following day. Whilst active, Bret caused the deaths of 12 people, and caused $125 million in damages. The storm also caused 5 tornadoes in the state, of which one was rated as an EF2. Hurricane Cindy The origins of Hurricane Cindy can be traced to a well organized tropical wave, which emerged off Africa on July 10. Moving westwards, the low quickly organised, and during the afternoon of July 12, the low became Tropical Storm Cindy off the coast, having missed tropical depression intensity. As Cindy continued west, continued organisation took place, and after an eye was observed on July 15, the storm was upgraded to a category 1 hurricane. The NHC noted that conditions were favourable for continued intensification, and forecasted the storm to approach the Lesser Antilles as a category 3 hurricane. Instead, an unexpected subtropical ridge developed to the storms west and south, forcing it to turn northwards instead. The following day, Cindy attained its peak intensity with winds of 105 mph, and an estimated central pressure of 970 mbar from Dvorak observations. On July 17, Cindy weakened back to a category 1 as it began to struggle against increasing shear. On the following evening, Cindy lost hurricane strength whilst it was making a cyclonic loop, and the eye collapsed as the shear began to tear the storm apart. On the afternoon of July 19, Cindy was downgraded to a tropical depression briefly as its low level circulation became completely exposed. On July 20, Cindy was declared post tropical after its low level circulation had dissipated. The remnant low dissipated later the same day, having had only minimal impacts on land. Hurricane Don Tropical Storm Emily Tropical Storm Franklin Hurricane Gert Tropical Depression Eight Tropical Storm Harvey Hurricane Irma Hurricane Jose Hurricane Katia Hurricane Lee The origins of Lee can be traced back to a tropical wave that emerged from Africa on September 21. Moving across the basin, the wave faioed to organise until it came near Hispaniola, when it was designated as Tropical Depression Thirteen, before shear and an upper levwl low halted further intensification of the cyclone. Following the building of a ridge to the storms north, the depression began moving southwest, reaching tropical storm intensity and recieving the name Lee later the same day as conditions bevame favourable for development. The following day, September 30, Lee became a category 1 hurricane, and began to rapidly deepen, reaching category 5 intensity the next morning as it entered the far southern Caribbean Sea, triggering mass panic in various countries. On October 3, Lee made landfall in northern Nicaragua at peak strength, and guided by the complex ridging in place, was guided out into the Eastern Pacific as a category 1 hurricane later that day, ending its advisories in the Atlantic as a result. The Atlantic side of Lee led to 37 deaths in Nicaragua, 7 in Honduras, and 2 in Costa Rica, mainly from heavy rainfall and mudslides, bringing the storms total to 46 deaths. In addition to this, Lee also caused $5 billion in damages, which later led to its retirement as an Atlantic tropical cyclone name as a result of this. Hurricane Maria Hurricane Nate Tropical Storm Ophelia Tropical Storm Philippe Tropical Depression Twenty-One Tropical Storm Rina Category:Atlantic hurricane seasons Category:Tropical cyclones Category:Hurricane Layten Category:Predictions Category:Layten's pages